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Prediction for CME (2023-11-10T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-10T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27666/-1
CME Note: Faint and wide CME seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 in difference imagery. There appears to be a shock and bulk portion to this CME, with the shock exhibiting more of a dimpled front, possibly due to an emerging feature to the NW overlapping the upper left-hand portion of the CME. This doesn't appear to impact the trailing front or "bulk" portion of the CME. The source of this CME appears to be an eruption in the southwest quadrant of the Earth-facing disk near Active Regions 13484, 13477, and newly numbered AR 13485. Noticeable moving/opening field lines are seen in SDO/AIA 193, 211, and GOES SUVI 284 starting around 2023-11-10T18:34Z. Dimming is also visible in SDO/AIA 211 starting around 2023-11-10T19:29Z with wide and brief potential post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2023-11-10T21:00Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-15T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/27670/1
Model Inputs:
2023-11-10T20:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=35.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=361.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2023-11-11T06:26Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-11-15T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-14T02:00Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-15T12:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-11-15T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231111_062600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 86.37 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-11-11T15:38Z

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